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Related Publications
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Konjunktur und Finanzmärkte 2012,
Horizonte und Trends 2012, Anlass der Schweizer Personalvorsorge, Zürich, 5. Januar 2012.
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Wachstumsfluktuationen, Zykluskonzepte und konjunkturelle Wendepunkte,
in: Classification and Clustering in Business Cycle Analysis, Ed. Heilemann&Weihs, 2007, with Bernd Schips (g).
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What is a recession?,
12. November 2002, Neue Zürcher Zeitung, NZZ 263 (g).
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Befindet sich die Industriekonjunktur bereits in einer Überhitzungsphase? – Konstruktion von Schwellenwerten zur Früherkennung von konjunkturellen Extremphasen anhand von Umfragedaten für die Industrie,
KOF Monatsbericht, Konjunkturforschungsstelle der ETH Zürich, January 2002 (g).
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Deriving Unbiased Thresholds To Signal Turning Points In Leading Indicators,
manuscript presented at the International Symposium on Forecasting, Pine Mountain USA, June 2001.
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Signalling Bottlenecks/Overcapacities and Low/High Dynamics – A New Approach to Indicate Changes in Business Cycles,
in: Economic Surveys and Data Analysis, CIRET Conference Proceedings, hosted by OECD, Paris, October 2000.
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Dating and Predicting Regime Phase Changes,
The Swiss Business Cycle, KOF/ETH-Working Paper, 1999.
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Business Cycle Turning Points: Dating and Forecasting – Chronology of different types of turning points and development of an early warning system based on Markov switching models of Swiss survey data,
1999, Ph.D. thesis University of St. Gallen (g).
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Methods to identify and forecast business cycle turning points,
Business Cycle – monthly report of the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF/ETH), December 1997.