The UIG captures sustained movements in inflation from information contained in a broad set of price, real activity, and financial data ◦ developed jointly with the Fed New York ◦ forecasts headline inflation better than traditional core measures ◦ developed and implemented during regular visits since 2005 ◦ has been updated daily by Fed New York since 2005
Indicators > Inflation Cycle
Knowledge of in-/deflationary trends is relevant for policy makers and investors alike. As Resident Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Marlene created the “Fed New York staff underlying inflation gauge (UIG)” and since 2012 a similar gauge for China jointly with Peoples Bank of China. Previously, she developed “Dynamic Factor Inflation (DFI)” at the Swiss National Bank.
lndicator for Chinese trend inflation ◦ developed and implemented for PBoC during regular visits started in 2012 ◦ presented at PBoC internal seminars and published as PBoC and BIS working paper ◦ ongoing joint research.
Indicator for Swiss trend inflation ◦ developed and implemented 2002-2004 at SNB ◦ evaluated daily since May 2006.